2022-11-15

Whipsaw massacre Gap up after inflation numbers in a already piled on situation The market is of course vulnerable for at least a fade It is an open-auction out of balance which goes up and down through the open several times If you expect imbalance, like i did, this is the recipe for a whipsaw massacre You get in several times, you reverse positions but you do not get paid I was in for the fade or the liquidation several times but always got chopped out When the liquidation came (triggered by ukraine news) i was already out Thougths on the Market We took out a daily high and are offiicially in balance on the daily now Interesting to see how the market came back in the afternoon Liquidations strenghten a market because they take out longs. These longs have now sold. This means a) This sell already happened and b) they can become new buyers (normally again at bad location) I would not be surprised if we open higher tomorrow

2022-10-06

Before the open:We are in a covering-environmentWe had a gap up and hold higher prices for 2 days nowYesterday was an outside day that closed strongIt looks like we stay in status quo (covering mode) (=bullish) as long as we do not close the gap below and find acceptance thereBut: Big numbers are comingTomorrow we get non-farm-payrollsThis increases the odds that we do not get much movement today...that we stay in balance, get some chop, ...Try to trade from a little more defensive, responsive standpoint How did the day developedWe started very strong and it seemed we could test rth hBut we failed hardEven so we failed hard we did not get much on the downsideWe ended with an inside dayLearning:It is extremely helpful to have in mind that we eventually do not get much today because of coming numbers

2022-10-05

Open clearly lower (surprising in that environment) but in rangeMy thoughts how the day could eventually develop were correct: Shaking out on the downside and moving up again (staying in covering mode)My visualizations appeared, i took my longs. But the market shaked out one time too often and went back up without meSometimes you are not sufficient in sync with the market or just unluckyThis is an inevitable part of the game