2022-11-15

Whipsaw massacre

  • Gap up after inflation numbers in a already piled on situation
  • The market is of course vulnerable for at least a fade
  • It is an open-auction out of balance which goes up and down through the open several times
  • If you expect imbalance, like i did, this is the recipe for a whipsaw massacre
  • You get in several times, you reverse positions but you do not get paid
  • I was in for the fade or the liquidation several times but always got chopped out
  • When the liquidation came (triggered by ukraine news) i was already out

Thougths on the Market

  • We took out a daily high and are offiicially in balance on the daily now
  • Interesting to see how the market came back in the afternoon
  • Liquidations strenghten a market because they take out longs. These longs have now sold. This means a) This sell already happened and b) they can become new buyers (normally again at bad location)
  • I would not be surprised if we open higher tomorrow

2022-10-06

Before the open:

  • We are in a covering-environment
  • We had a gap up and hold higher prices for 2 days now
  • Yesterday was an outside day that closed strong
  • It looks like we stay in status quo (covering mode) (=bullish) as long as we do not close the gap below and find acceptance there

But: Big numbers are coming

  • Tomorrow we get non-farm-payrolls
  • This increases the odds that we do not get much movement today
  • …that we stay in balance, get some chop, …
  • Try to trade from a little more defensive, responsive standpoint

How did the day developed

  • We started very strong and it seemed we could test rth h
  • But we failed hard
  • Even so we failed hard we did not get much on the downside
  • We ended with an inside day

Learning:

It is extremely helpful to have in mind that we eventually do not get much today because of coming numbers

2022-10-05

  • Open clearly lower (surprising in that environment) but in range
  • My thoughts how the day could eventually develop were correct: Shaking out on the downside and moving up again (staying in covering mode)
  • My visualizations appeared, i took my longs. But the market shaked out one time too often and went back up without me
  • Sometimes you are not sufficient in sync with the market or just unlucky
  • This is an inevitable part of the game