2022-10-17

  • Interesting overnight sessions that opened at rth low and  went up the whole session
  • It is not a real gap but a big one with a good amount of shock and awe. Where did much selling take place yesterday? At the poc.
  • Gap up and go and hold
  • Good example that you should not expect too much more on a large gap
  • Get a cheap price and scale out humble is the m.o.

2022-10-13

  • Very large gap down
  • Ultra massive covering-trend-day

Large gaps

  • The larger the gap the more  promising is the fade
  • The larger the gap the more dangerous is to go with it

2022-10-11

  • Continuation of downtrend versus covering is the actual question
  • We looked below rth low but did not accomplish very much
  • Consequently coverings start and make a nice move to the composite poc 3650
  • There were (as always) arguments for a runner. See what happened at 2:45 pm
  • The market is very news-driven at the moment
  • Trade small, cash in, stay calm

Slow is smooth and smooth is fast

2022-10-06

Before the open:

  • We are in a covering-environment
  • We had a gap up and hold higher prices for 2 days now
  • Yesterday was an outside day that closed strong
  • It looks like we stay in status quo (covering mode) (=bullish) as long as we do not close the gap below and find acceptance there

But: Big numbers are coming

  • Tomorrow we get non-farm-payrolls
  • This increases the odds that we do not get much movement today
  • …that we stay in balance, get some chop, …
  • Try to trade from a little more defensive, responsive standpoint

How did the day developed

  • We started very strong and it seemed we could test rth h
  • But we failed hard
  • Even so we failed hard we did not get much on the downside
  • We ended with an inside day

Learning:

It is extremely helpful to have in mind that we eventually do not get much today because of coming numbers

2022-09-28

Balance rules at its best

  • Look below and fail in eth session
  • Moving to other end of balance with a big covering-trend-day
  • Critical moment for getting out/reversing (white ellipse)

2022-09-27

  • Open with covering-gap up but inside of range and two day balance
  • Short continuation of covering
  • Covering fails into trend-move
  • Very choppy contra/consolidaton-move. Critical moment for getting out/reversing
  • But good opportunity to re-enter short in that environment

2022-09-20

Avoid sandwich time

  • Many times vwap does not hold
  • The path gets very unclean (algo plays)
  • Best is to end the day at 11:30
  • If at all  come back at 1:30 and look for a good h/l (after a little shake out)

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