2022-11-10

2022-11-08

Small gap up
A period checks back in upper distribution from yesterday and fails
We start one time framing higher
It looks very stable. Contextually we should have more covering potential
I hit a 20P Target.
I decide to let a runner run
For me a runner is a trade that i let free of narrow trade management because i think contextually we have room for more (narrative completion, destination trade)
On Friday i had a similar trade on the short side

The intention is to trade the structure of the day as a whole with a small remaining position
I do this with minimal path dependancy. I do not want to get shaken out by normal contra rotations
If it works you make big profit and you feel good, because you saw the structure of the market as a whole instead of having to scalp around small in fight with the algos
In volatile times i sometimes need 2-3 trials before i am in a running trade. In that case i feel that i need to profit accordingly. If this goes too far and you trade your p&l instead of the market this is of course a big problem.

Volatility of p&L increases which has much effects: 1) Calmness of mind decreases 2) Ability to increase size decreases
To balance these large disadvantages runners should have a large positive financial outcome. This is not the case

The market is full of intraday speculators (too long, too short, need to liquidate/cover)
Money comes from size and size comes from stability

Many times it is a question of timeframe
If the environment is readable it is good to catch the larger intraday moves
If like now the market is in big indecision it should be better to trade a shorter timeframe
At the moment short term traders and algos get shaken around. Ohhh, it´s going down, let´s short it, f* no follow through we have to cover, ….
I expect this behaviour to continue the following week. We have midterm elections on tuesday and cpi on thursday
Look at the daily chart. You can see the indecision in the overlapping value areas
On the weekly chart on the left we see that sellers had the chance to get an outside week down but they were not able to get it
Until we get more clearity try to trade a little bit smaller timeframe !!!

Open with huge gap up at top of overnight session with 100% long overnight inventory
This is an invitation to go for the fade which worked out fine
For me unepected they filled the gap completely

We produced a red candle but nevertheless this was a positive day for the bulls as we accepted higher prices compared to the days before
We now have a choppy 3-week-balance area which is not my favorite
We also have Q3 earnings at the moment
I think at the moment the map is unclear
For daytrading: Be extremely objective. Do not develop biases. When in doubt get out. Cash in instead of making larger destination trades
Be a collector – not a hunter
Go for base hits – not homeruns

Interesting overnight sessions that opened at rth low and went up the whole session
It is not a real gap but a big one with a good amount of shock and awe. Where did much selling take place yesterday? At the poc.
Gap up and go and hold
Good example that you should not expect too much more on a large gap
Get a cheap price and scale out humble is the m.o.

Open with gap up in potential covering environment
Market tried to go higher but failed
Good example that you have to be as objective as possible (your mind has to be open to all different outcomes)
Fell the whole day and closed low with low poc
Retraced between 50% and 61,8% from that brutal covering move the day before
Very unclear what the next direction will be