2023-03-31

Post market

Market

Impressive finish of first quarter by the bulls
Now we have piling on and some balancing would be healthy to bring short term traders inventory in balance
In other words: To kick out some poor loated longs (fomo buyers)

My trading

I had some small losses in the beginning and later participated in the second directional move
My behaviour in the beginning caused unnecessary emotional trouble
I have multiple years of experience daytrading the ES
I have guidelines resulting from this experience
Staying with these guideline takes out much emotional trouble and makes my life much easier

My gap guidelines

Large gap rule:

Do not follow large gaps early. The market usually takes care of old business first. The first order of business is the inventory correction

Small gap rule:

Do not fade small gaps. After small gaps we sometimes see an open drive/ gap and go

2023-03-30

Post market

Middle picture

Gaps and vpocs stacking
We see more range in eth as in rth
On the one hand we see higher prices and higher value and gaps are holding which is positive
On the other hand the participation (volume) is low which does not confirm higher prices
We have a piling on which increases the odds of a liquidation break
Anything can happen. It´s also possible that covering or new money comes in. There should be enough cash in the market waiting for lower prices
PCE at 8:30 could things shake a little
In summary this is still a very indecisive market

Daytrading

It is ultra important to a) buy relatively low AFTER a break and b) scale out moderately
Of course shorts are also tradeable especially early in the session when we come in high with long overnight inventory
Trade from the framework that the market is controlled by market makers

If the market wants up wait for „relative oversoldness“

If the market wants down wait for „relative overboughtness“

This is the way to construct

Asymmetric Opportunities

2023-03-29

Post market

Large gap up above the downtrendline in spy
Trying to gap and go
Fail and fade
Fade is slow so very tough to trade
In the end the gap holds and fills less than half. But it needs until D to create a change
Then we consequently go up but also very slow and hard to trade
In the end we saw a classical development: Fade followed by a two leg up-move. But everything so slow and small that it is hard to trade
I ended with a small loss. Did everything right

The market has a good chance to go higher

2023-03-27

Pre market

Post market

What happened

We opened with gap up
Had a little fade and then tried to go higher but failed
I saw this and shorted it. In these situations i often want to see the short develop fast. I close these trades too early, because the fact that we are holding the gap at this moment makes me feel uncomfortable in the short.
Be more confident in this situation. Give the trade more time to develop even if it is against the gap. There is enough long inventory which has to liquidate
We made a liquidation b but were not able to enter y rth
On the other hand there were no buyers to create a real change to the upside
We ended the day with value clean higher

Mental part

I ended with a small loss which i accepted totally. There was no attempt to fight this daily loss. This makes me happy because the acceptance of daily losses is my actual main point on which i work
The techniques of trading auction market theory are not that complicated. It is the mental part ot the game which makes the real difference

2023-01-26

Pre market

Post market

Open with gap up on new swing high
Sellers in control in the morning
From midday on buyers take over control

This market regularly gets too long. The consequent strategy is to wait until the inventory corrections are done. If we get a gap and go (which is rare) i am not on board.

2022-01-09

Gap up, trying to break out of that bigger balance area
Nice fade exactly to rth h
Nice move in breakout direction
Failing hard at midday
Gamechange trade near vwap possible
Closing low
Has the breaokut failed? I think we have to wait and see. It did not sell off hard enough to be clear

2022-12-13

Pre market narrative

Post Market summary

We had a ultra huge gap of nearly 3% after inflation data
We closed that gap to 100%
Many trader who trade for decades told that they cannot remember such a huge gap close on the first day in the ES

2022-12-01

Pre market narrative

Trying to breakout from that 10 day balance
If that breakout holds, go with it
Yesterdays move was on high emotion
These moves consolidate/retrace one day
Generally the tone is up as long as we stay above balance area high
But remember that in a bull market we often see short term inventory getting too long …

Post market summary

We explored higher and failed
Consequently we had a little liquidation break
Rest of the day the market settles

2022-11-28

Big Picture

We have a large downtrend which is intact
We are close to the trendline and have to see if we are able to break the downtrend
Are the lows of the year in?
Makes zero sense to think about this. Do not listen to the media. Let MGI guide you.

Middle picture

We see an uptrend which is not very dynamic. Balance areas overlap.
Nice balance area from the last 8 days
The destination trade worked perfectly from excess at the bottom to the top
I ignore the two holidays. I see todays open as a test of wednesday low

We opened below wednesday low
The first minutes looked like we reject lower prices
But we quickly ran out of steem and fell the rest of the day
You can formally call it a trend day. But for a gamechanging trendday down this is not enough range and not enough volume
We have two days left for this month. I try to stay neutral

A thought that came to my mind tonight:

Good entries show you fast and clear when you are wrong

2022-11-11

Open with small gap up
On the one hand the market is very bullish, on the other hand inventory is already very long
Not easy to trade