2023-03-31

Post market MarketImpressive finish of first quarter by the bullsNow we have piling on and some balancing would be healthy to bring short term traders inventory in balanceIn other words: To kick out some poor loated longs (fomo buyers)My tradingI had some small losses in the beginning and later participated in the second directional moveMy behaviour in the beginning caused unnecessary emotional troubleI have multiple years of experience daytrading the ESI have guidelines resulting from this experienceStaying with these guideline takes out much emotional trouble and makes my life much easierMy gap guidelinesLarge gap rule:Do not follow large gaps early. The market usually takes care of old business first. The first order of business is the inventory correctionSmall gap rule:Do not fade small gaps. After small gaps we sometimes see an open drive/ gap and go

2023-03-30

Post market Middle pictureGaps and vpocs stackingWe see more range in eth as in rthOn the one hand we see higher prices and higher value and gaps are holding which is positiveOn the other hand the participation (volume) is low which does not confirm higher pricesWe have a piling on which increases the odds of a liquidation breakAnything can happen. It´s also possible that covering or new money comes in. There should be enough cash in the market waiting for lower pricesPCE at 8:30 could things shake a littleIn summary this is still a very indecisive marketDaytradingIt is ultra important to a) buy relatively low AFTER a break and b) scale out moderatelyOf course shorts are also tradeable especially early in the session when we come in high with long overnight inventoryTrade from the framework that the market is controlled by market makersIf the market wants up wait for "relative oversoldness"If the market wants down wait for "relative overboughtness"This is the way to constructAsymmetric Opportunities

2023-03-29

Post market Large gap up above the downtrendline in spyTrying to gap and goFail and fadeFade is slow so very tough to tradeIn the end the gap holds and fills less than half. But it needs until D to create a changeThen we consequently go up but also very slow and hard to tradeIn the end we saw a classical development: Fade followed by a two leg up-move. But everything so slow and small that it is hard to tradeI ended with a small loss. Did everything right  The market has a good chance to go higher

2023-03-27

Pre market Post market What happened We opened with gap up Had a little fade and then tried to go higher but failed I saw this and shorted it. In these situations i often want to see the short develop fast. I close these trades too early, because the fact that we are holding the gap at this moment makes me feel uncomfortable in the short. Be more confident in this situation. Give the trade more time to develop even if it is against the gap. There is enough long inventory which has to liquidate We made a liquidation b but were not able to enter y rth On the other hand there were no buyers to create a real change to the upside We ended the day with value clean higher Mental part I ended with a small loss which i accepted totally. There was no attempt to fight this daily loss. This makes me happy because the acceptance of daily losses is my actual main point on which i work The techniques of trading auction market theory are not that complicated. It is the mental part ot the game which makes the real difference

2023-01-26

Pre market Post market Open with gap up on new swing high Sellers in control in the morningFrom midday on buyers take over controlThis market regularly gets too long. The consequent strategy is to wait until the inventory corrections are done. If we get a gap and go (which is rare) i am not on board.

2022-01-09

Gap up, trying to break out of that bigger balance areaNice fade exactly to rth hNice move in breakout directionFailing hard at middayGamechange trade near vwap possibleClosing lowHas the breaokut failed? I think we have to wait and see. It did not sell off hard enough to be clear

2022-12-13

Pre market narrative Post Market summary We had a ultra huge gap of nearly 3% after inflation dataWe closed that gap to 100%Many trader who trade for decades told that they cannot remember such a huge gap close on the first day in the ES

2022-12-01

Pre market narrative Trying to breakout from that 10 day balanceIf that breakout holds, go with itYesterdays move was on high emotionThese moves consolidate/retrace one dayGenerally the tone is up as long as we stay above balance area highBut remember that in a bull market we often see short term inventory getting too long ... Post market summary We explored higher and failedConsequently we had a little liquidation breakRest of the day the market settles

2022-11-28

Big PictureWe have a large downtrend which is intactWe are close to the trendline and have to see if we are able to break the downtrendAre the lows of the year in?Makes zero sense to think about this. Do not listen to the media. Let MGI guide you.  Middle pictureWe see an uptrend which is not very dynamic. Balance areas overlap. Nice balance area from the last 8 daysThe destination trade worked perfectly from excess at the bottom to the top I ignore the two holidays. I see todays open as a test of wednesday low We opened below wednesday low The first minutes looked like we reject lower prices But we quickly ran out of steem and fell the rest of the day  You can formally call it a trend day. But for a gamechanging  trendday down this is not enough range and not enough volume We have two days left for this month. I try to stay neutral A thought that came to my mind tonight: Good entries show you fast and clear when you are wrong

2022-11-11

Open with small gap up On the one hand the market is very bullish, on the other hand inventory is already very long  Not easy to trade