2022-01-10

  • The question was if the breakout failed or not
  • The market changed his mind several times, always producing valid signals which all did not follow through
  • Market grinded up in the second half of day
  • We have no follow through on that very bearish candle from the day before. This, in my view, is for now more bullish than bearish

2022-12-15

Pre market narrative

Post market summary

  • The question is if what we saw the last two days with big news influence is an excess on the top or not
  • We open with gap down 
  • We get minimal fade
  • We go down all day and create a liquidation b-profile
  • We close below the big balance area low
  • It is a liquidation profile with 77 points of range. Not a trending day. 
  • As such it is not a total capitulation of buyers. But unquestionable we are down on the daily down after excess on the top
  • Excess marks the end of one auction and the beginning of another
  • The next days will bring if we get  a) breakout fail and come back in balance area b) continuation to the downside or c) new balance

2022-12-02

Pre market narrative

  • Gap down after nfp which brings us into the 3 week balance area
  • It is a gap down in a long environment
  • To keep the breakout intact we would need to reject these lower prices
  • If they accept these lower prices we would have a look above and fail
  • Do not trust gaps. Look what they do when the bell rings

Post market summary

  • The market was upwards all day
  • They did it slow as if they do not want to show their hand
  • A simple thing like a trendline can be very helpful on these days to stay objective
  • For me this rejection out of the balance area looks very positive. But as the wednesday move was very large and emotional there can of course happen more shake out before the market eventually grinds higher. Thats why we trade on the day timeframe.

2022-11-03

  • The market is trying to roll over
  • We open with gap down after a large down spike so the market is already very short positioned
  • On the other hand if we really roll over we could test the lows of the year and get further down momentum today
  • Near zero fade. Starts like a gap and go
  • We fail to go lower with the ism news
  • The rest of the day we are in an upside movement but the buyers do not accomplish anything. They are not able to close the gap
  • Buyers had all opportunity to reject these lower prices hardly but they did not
  • Also sellers did not accomplish further follow through
  • We end with value clean lower which of course is bearish
  • At the moment the d1 up-trend is broken and we rolled over in a new down-swing.
  • The next days will show. Next week we have the mid term election. Tomorrow is nfp. You gotta love it 🙂

2022-10-13

  • Very large gap down
  • Ultra massive covering-trend-day

Large gaps

  • The larger the gap the more  promising is the fade
  • The larger the gap the more dangerous is to go with it

2022-10-07

  • Open with gap down after NFP
  • Gap and go
  • No larger pullback (which you never know until the closing bell rings)
  • Trading is about CHANGE. Today we changed from covering-mode back to downtrend-mode

2022-09-23

  • Gap & go
  • Market turned 3 points before low of year
  • Ended with some short covering starting at 3 pm
  • Market is very short now after falling more than 10% in a straight line

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