2022-10-12

  • We had ppi and fed minutes
  • But we produced an inside day
  • Inside day is balance. After balance comes imbalance

2022-10-11

  • Continuation of downtrend versus covering is the actual question
  • We looked below rth low but did not accomplish very much
  • Consequently coverings start and make a nice move to the composite poc 3650
  • There were (as always) arguments for a runner. See what happened at 2:45 pm
  • The market is very news-driven at the moment
  • Trade small, cash in, stay calm

Slow is smooth and smooth is fast

2022-10-10

  • Of course we are in a downtrend and it all looks as if we get new lows
  • But at the same time inventory is very short so that at any time the market can make a smaller or bigger covering
  • Plus: We have important inflation data coming out soon
  • Plus: Earnings season starts on friday with bank numbers
  • Coverings or news-moves can come any time
  • Scale out !!

2022-10-07

  • Open with gap down after NFP
  • Gap and go
  • No larger pullback (which you never know until the closing bell rings)
  • Trading is about CHANGE. Today we changed from covering-mode back to downtrend-mode

2022-10-06

Before the open:

  • We are in a covering-environment
  • We had a gap up and hold higher prices for 2 days now
  • Yesterday was an outside day that closed strong
  • It looks like we stay in status quo (covering mode) (=bullish) as long as we do not close the gap below and find acceptance there

But: Big numbers are coming

  • Tomorrow we get non-farm-payrolls
  • This increases the odds that we do not get much movement today
  • …that we stay in balance, get some chop, …
  • Try to trade from a little more defensive, responsive standpoint

How did the day developed

  • We started very strong and it seemed we could test rth h
  • But we failed hard
  • Even so we failed hard we did not get much on the downside
  • We ended with an inside day

Learning:

It is extremely helpful to have in mind that we eventually do not get much today because of coming numbers

2022-10-05

  • Open clearly lower (surprising in that environment) but in range
  • My thoughts how the day could eventually develop were correct: Shaking out on the downside and moving up again (staying in covering mode)
  • My visualizations appeared, i took my longs. But the market shaked out one time too often and went back up without me
  • Sometimes you are not sufficient in sync with the market or just unlucky
  • This is an inevitable part of the game

2022-10-04

  • Gap up in covering environment
  • Gap and go
  • Pullback to vwap
  • Second leg with much less dynamic

2022-10-03

  • Market tested new lows in overnight session but got rejected
  • Wonderful two-legged covering-day

2022-09-30

  • Covering in the morning
  • Long Trend move down ending Q3 at lows

2022-09-29

Balance rules again

  • Thursdays strong covering makes people expect a little more, eg. gap fill.
  • Longer term sellers feel comfortable to sell at higher prices
  • Gap down switches that feeling to the opposite. They have to hurry now because their selling prices suddenly get worse instead of better
  • Market reaches bottom of balance in B-Period
  • Nice pullback that holds at vwap 24. These were rare in the last weeks