2022-10-26

  • At the moment we also have an intact breakout from the bigger balance
  • NQ is sharply down with earnings from msft and alphabet
  • Large NQ-ES-divergence often leads to big chop
  • Important to watch both markets on days like this
  • NQ drops below rth low but holds and starts to rise
  • We get a choppy up-move in ES
  • Everything seems strong, we get a slow pullback in lunchtime which for me is buyable
  • Fails to hold vwap. Minustrade for me
  • But does not sell off. It holds above rth l.
  • These moves are not so easy to trade at the moment
  • We have to see how the market reacts to the coming numbers. On Thursday we get aapl and amzn after the close
  • Given the sell offs in msft and alphabet the market seems to be strong in my eyes 
  • Next week we have fomc and the following week midterm elections. These news are ultra important

2022-10-25

  • The breakout from smaller balance is intact
  • Lets see what we get regarding the bigger balance
  • We continue to rally the whole day without a bigger pullback
  • Of course this is much covering
  • It remains to be seen if this is only a bear market covering rally or if we have the longer term low in 
  • One day doesn´t make a market

2022-10-24

  • Gap up out of 5 day balance
  • Starts strong
  • Then fails and breaks back into balance
  • Turns again and goes up the rest of the session
  • Two surprising changes, not easy to trade

2022-10-21

  • We have a 4 day balance area which is inside of a bigger 4 week balance area
  • We open at the lower end of y range and the 4 day balance area
  • We test below and fail
  • We move up strongly almost to the upper end of the 4 day balance
  • Not a classic trending day because we had a strong corrective move 

What about next trading week?

  • There was much covering in this up-move
  • We will see if longer term buyers will also come in
  • The last rallys were all sold off
  • Most important earnings week
  • Be objective and open to all possible outcomes: 1) look above and go 2) look above and fail 3) door no 3 is balance,
  • Do not go into overnight swing positions. These will lead to bias and kill your daytrading objectivity
  • Start each day flat and open minded and enjoy low risk daytrading 

2022-10-20

  • Looks we are still balancing out this last up-move
  • Opens in balance
  • Fails to go lower
  • Makes a nice up-move
  • Everything looks good for a second up-move in the afternoon
  • But it fails and goes lower with some fed speaking

2022-10-18

Trading day

  • Open with huge gap up at top of overnight session with 100% long overnight inventory
  • This is an invitation to go for the fade which worked out fine
  • For me unepected they filled the gap completely

Middle picture and how to act

  • We produced a red candle but nevertheless this was a positive day for the bulls as we accepted higher prices compared to the days before
  • We now have a choppy 3-week-balance area which is not my favorite
  • We also have Q3 earnings at the moment
  • I think at the moment the map is unclear
  • For daytrading: Be extremely objective. Do not develop biases. When in doubt get out. Cash in instead of making larger destination trades
  • Be a collector – not a hunter
  • Go for base hits – not homeruns

2022-10-17

  • Interesting overnight sessions that opened at rth low and  went up the whole session
  • It is not a real gap but a big one with a good amount of shock and awe. Where did much selling take place yesterday? At the poc.
  • Gap up and go and hold
  • Good example that you should not expect too much more on a large gap
  • Get a cheap price and scale out humble is the m.o.

2022-10-14

  • Open with gap up in potential covering environment 
  • Market tried to go higher but failed 
  • Good example that you have to be as objective as possible (your mind has to be open to all different outcomes)
  • Fell the whole day and closed low with low poc
  • Retraced between 50% and 61,8% from that brutal covering move the day before
  • Very unclear what the next direction will be

2022-10-13

  • Very large gap down
  • Ultra massive covering-trend-day

Large gaps

  • The larger the gap the more  promising is the fade
  • The larger the gap the more dangerous is to go with it