2022-11-09

2022-11-08

Small gap up
A period checks back in upper distribution from yesterday and fails
We start one time framing higher
It looks very stable. Contextually we should have more covering potential
I hit a 20P Target.
I decide to let a runner run
For me a runner is a trade that i let free of narrow trade management because i think contextually we have room for more (narrative completion, destination trade)
On Friday i had a similar trade on the short side

The intention is to trade the structure of the day as a whole with a small remaining position
I do this with minimal path dependancy. I do not want to get shaken out by normal contra rotations
If it works you make big profit and you feel good, because you saw the structure of the market as a whole instead of having to scalp around small in fight with the algos
In volatile times i sometimes need 2-3 trials before i am in a running trade. In that case i feel that i need to profit accordingly. If this goes too far and you trade your p&l instead of the market this is of course a big problem.

Volatility of p&L increases which has much effects: 1) Calmness of mind decreases 2) Ability to increase size decreases
To balance these large disadvantages runners should have a large positive financial outcome. This is not the case

The market is full of intraday speculators (too long, too short, need to liquidate/cover)
Money comes from size and size comes from stability

Slow, choppy trading in most parts
Broke out at 2pm for some covering
Very important to not kill yourself in slow choppy markets, especially in sandwich time

Many times it is a question of timeframe
If the environment is readable it is good to catch the larger intraday moves
If like now the market is in big indecision it should be better to trade a shorter timeframe
At the moment short term traders and algos get shaken around. Ohhh, it´s going down, let´s short it, f* no follow through we have to cover, ….
I expect this behaviour to continue the following week. We have midterm elections on tuesday and cpi on thursday
Look at the daily chart. You can see the indecision in the overlapping value areas
On the weekly chart on the left we see that sellers had the chance to get an outside week down but they were not able to get it
Until we get more clearity try to trade a little bit smaller timeframe !!!

The market is trying to roll over
We open with gap down after a large down spike so the market is already very short positioned
On the other hand if we really roll over we could test the lows of the year and get further down momentum today
Near zero fade. Starts like a gap and go
We fail to go lower with the ism news
The rest of the day we are in an upside movement but the buyers do not accomplish anything. They are not able to close the gap
Buyers had all opportunity to reject these lower prices hardly but they did not
Also sellers did not accomplish further follow through
We end with value clean lower which of course is bearish
At the moment the d1 up-trend is broken and we rolled over in a new down-swing.
The next days will show. Next week we have the mid term election. Tomorrow is nfp. You gotta love it 🙂

We are on the day after a big trending day
We have the FED on wednesday
Not unexpected that we get a neutral day or something similar
It is also an inside day which is a good base for the next move
Can we get a larger move tomorrow, one day before the FED? Of course, we can, but the odds are much lower
Be defensive with trading breakouts from inside day tomorrow

We ended the day before with a spike
A spike is a price probe late in the session
In the next session it is interesting to see, where we get acceptance relative to the spike
We opened above the spike and never tested inside it.
Consequently covering started which developed into a trending day
Very interesting so see how strong the market ist despite these bad earnings in tech stocks