2022-12-05

Pre market narrative

  • We have an intact downtrend above
  • We have an intact uptrend below
  • These two crash into each other
  • We have to see what the outcome will be
  • Expect some chop in this area

Post market summary

  • We had a down move with the ism numbers
  • For me it looked like they buy it at the rth l area
  • I was wrong. They started a second down move at vwap/open
  • For me this move was not impressive enough to be a gamechanger to the downside. The up-trend is still intact. Sellers were not able to fill the single prints from wednesdays powell move 
  • I think the market just does not know where to go yet
 

2022-12-02

Pre market narrative

  • Gap down after nfp which brings us into the 3 week balance area
  • It is a gap down in a long environment
  • To keep the breakout intact we would need to reject these lower prices
  • If they accept these lower prices we would have a look above and fail
  • Do not trust gaps. Look what they do when the bell rings

Post market summary

  • The market was upwards all day
  • They did it slow as if they do not want to show their hand
  • A simple thing like a trendline can be very helpful on these days to stay objective
  • For me this rejection out of the balance area looks very positive. But as the wednesday move was very large and emotional there can of course happen more shake out before the market eventually grinds higher. Thats why we trade on the day timeframe.

2022-12-01

Pre market narrative

  • Trying to breakout from that 10 day balance
  • If that breakout holds, go with it
  • Yesterdays move was on high emotion
  • These moves consolidate/retrace one day
  • Generally the tone is up as long as we stay above balance area high
  • But remember that in a bull market we often see short term inventory getting too long … 

Post market summary

  • We explored higher and failed
  • Consequently we had a little liquidation break
  • Rest of the day the market settles

2022-11-30

Pre market narrative:

  • We are in an 11 day balance area
  • In that sense the market is in Balance
  • It is waiting for new information
  • Tomorrow we have inflation data and ism. On friday we have nfp.

Post market summary:

  • We continue to fall in an unimpressive way
  • We are not able to go below y rth l
  • Powell mentions something about eventually slowing the pace of rate hikes
  • The market explodes to the upside with good volume
  • We clearly take out the high of the bigger balance area. Remains to be seen if we find acceptance above
  • It is always the same. The market tests into new territory. We have to see if it finds acceptance or rejection
  • Of course, there was much short covering involved. But i think by far that was not only short covering.
  • Of course, this was triggered by Powell. But to what degree did he really back that move? Was there really so much new information? Or was the market anyway ready to go higher?

2022-11-29

  • Not much to say
  • Not my market
  • Breakeven is fine on these day
  • If you control your downside, the winners take care of themselves

In dating and in trading:

When you need nothing you get everything 

2022-11-28

Big Picture

  • We have a large downtrend which is intact
  • We are close to the trendline and have to see if we are able to break the downtrend
  • Are the lows of the year in?
  • Makes zero sense to think about this. Do not listen to the media. Let MGI guide you.

 

Middle picture

  • We see an uptrend which is not very dynamic. Balance areas overlap. 
  • Nice balance area from the last 8 days
  • The destination trade worked perfectly from excess at the bottom to the top
  •  I ignore the two holidays. I see todays open as a test of wednesday low
  • We opened below wednesday low
  • The first minutes looked like we reject lower prices
  • But we quickly ran out of steem and fell the rest of the day 
  • You can formally call it a trend day. But for a gamechanging  trendday down this is not enough range and not enough volume
  • We have two days left for this month. I try to stay neutral

A thought that came to my mind tonight:

Good entries show you fast and clear when you are wrong

2022-11-15

Whipsaw massacre

  • Gap up after inflation numbers in a already piled on situation
  • The market is of course vulnerable for at least a fade
  • It is an open-auction out of balance which goes up and down through the open several times
  • If you expect imbalance, like i did, this is the recipe for a whipsaw massacre
  • You get in several times, you reverse positions but you do not get paid
  • I was in for the fade or the liquidation several times but always got chopped out
  • When the liquidation came (triggered by ukraine news) i was already out

Thougths on the Market

  • We took out a daily high and are offiicially in balance on the daily now
  • Interesting to see how the market came back in the afternoon
  • Liquidations strenghten a market because they take out longs. These longs have now sold. This means a) This sell already happened and b) they can become new buyers (normally again at bad location)
  • I would not be surprised if we open higher tomorrow

2022-11-14

Liquidation break

  • We open in y balance
  • Try a little down, try a little up
  • You can feel that the market is a little bit too long, that buyers run out of bullets
  • Consequently, after 2pm we get a nice liquidation break
  • These breaks are hard to trade. When you have enough confirmation (speed) price has already moved a long distance
  • I do not sit in a trade waiting for a liquidation break. The most important thing is to recognize that it can happen and as a consequence not sit in a long trade 

2022-11-11

  • Open with small gap up
  • On the one hand the market is very bullish, on the other hand inventory is already very long 
  • Not easy to trade

 

2022-11-10

  • Open with large gap up after cooled inflation number
  • Starts with a little inventory correction
  • Remaining day up in a controlled way
  • These are the days where the market does what it should