2022-12-05

Pre market narrative We have an intact downtrend aboveWe have an intact uptrend belowThese two crash into each otherWe have to see what the outcome will beExpect some chop in this areaPost market summary We had a down move with the ism numbersFor me it looked like they buy it at the rth l areaI was wrong. They started a second down move at vwap/openFor me this move was not impressive enough to be a gamechanger to the downside. The up-trend is still intact. Sellers were not able to fill the single prints from wednesdays powell move I think the market just does not know where to go yet 

2022-12-02

Pre market narrative Gap down after nfp which brings us into the 3 week balance area It is a gap down in a long environment To keep the breakout intact we would need to reject these lower prices If they accept these lower prices we would have a look above and fail Do not trust gaps. Look what they do when the bell rings Post market summary The market was upwards all day They did it slow as if they do not want to show their hand A simple thing like a trendline can be very helpful on these days to stay objective For me this rejection out of the balance area looks very positive. But as the wednesday move was very large and emotional there can of course happen more shake out before the market eventually grinds higher. Thats why we trade on the day timeframe.

2022-12-01

Pre market narrative Trying to breakout from that 10 day balanceIf that breakout holds, go with itYesterdays move was on high emotionThese moves consolidate/retrace one dayGenerally the tone is up as long as we stay above balance area highBut remember that in a bull market we often see short term inventory getting too long ... Post market summary We explored higher and failedConsequently we had a little liquidation breakRest of the day the market settles

2022-11-30

Pre market narrative: We are in an 11 day balance areaIn that sense the market is in BalanceIt is waiting for new informationTomorrow we have inflation data and ism. On friday we have nfp.Post market summary: We continue to fall in an unimpressive wayWe are not able to go below y rth lPowell mentions something about eventually slowing the pace of rate hikesThe market explodes to the upside with good volumeWe clearly take out the high of the bigger balance area. Remains to be seen if we find acceptance aboveIt is always the same. The market tests into new territory. We have to see if it finds acceptance or rejectionOf course, there was much short covering involved. But i think by far that was not only short covering.Of course, this was triggered by Powell. But to what degree did he really back that move? Was there really so much new information? Or was the market anyway ready to go higher?

2022-11-29

Not much to sayNot my marketBreakeven is fine on these dayIf you control your downside, the winners take care of themselvesIn dating and in trading:When you need nothing you get everything 

2022-11-28

Big PictureWe have a large downtrend which is intactWe are close to the trendline and have to see if we are able to break the downtrendAre the lows of the year in?Makes zero sense to think about this. Do not listen to the media. Let MGI guide you.  Middle pictureWe see an uptrend which is not very dynamic. Balance areas overlap. Nice balance area from the last 8 daysThe destination trade worked perfectly from excess at the bottom to the top I ignore the two holidays. I see todays open as a test of wednesday low We opened below wednesday low The first minutes looked like we reject lower prices But we quickly ran out of steem and fell the rest of the day  You can formally call it a trend day. But for a gamechanging  trendday down this is not enough range and not enough volume We have two days left for this month. I try to stay neutral A thought that came to my mind tonight: Good entries show you fast and clear when you are wrong

2022-11-15

Whipsaw massacre Gap up after inflation numbers in a already piled on situation The market is of course vulnerable for at least a fade It is an open-auction out of balance which goes up and down through the open several times If you expect imbalance, like i did, this is the recipe for a whipsaw massacre You get in several times, you reverse positions but you do not get paid I was in for the fade or the liquidation several times but always got chopped out When the liquidation came (triggered by ukraine news) i was already out Thougths on the Market We took out a daily high and are offiicially in balance on the daily now Interesting to see how the market came back in the afternoon Liquidations strenghten a market because they take out longs. These longs have now sold. This means a) This sell already happened and b) they can become new buyers (normally again at bad location) I would not be surprised if we open higher tomorrow

2022-11-14

Liquidation break We open in y balance Try a little down, try a little up You can feel that the market is a little bit too long, that buyers run out of bullets Consequently, after 2pm we get a nice liquidation break These breaks are hard to trade. When you have enough confirmation (speed) price has already moved a long distance I do not sit in a trade waiting for a liquidation break. The most important thing is to recognize that it can happen and as a consequence not sit in a long trade 

2022-11-11

Open with small gap up On the one hand the market is very bullish, on the other hand inventory is already very long  Not easy to trade

2022-11-10

Open with large gap up after cooled inflation numberStarts with a little inventory correctionRemaining day up in a controlled wayThese are the days where the market does what it should