2023-01-17

  • On the weekly fesx we see, that european stock market is on its way to reach the alltime high
  • The SPY weekly is still fighting with its downtrend that started with the beginning of 2022

 

  • ES  (daily candles) succesfully broke out of that balance area
  • We are one time framing higher for 4 days now and were able to close above the 61.8.
  • But the dynamic is not very high. Overlapping value. Higher highs only by little
  • What can happen next?
  • Dynamic can increase with more short covering
  • We can balance for a while
  • We can totally roll over and get a new down swing
  • We started strong with a breakout to new highs on high volume
  • But then buyers ran out of bullets and we liquidated for the rest of the session resulting in a liquidation-b-profile
  • We had a nice selling tail on the top but stronger selling did not develop. We even did not reach Fridays mid and by far not fridays low.
  • So we are still otf up. It seems that we just have to balance a bit. 

2022-01-10

  • The question was if the breakout failed or not
  • The market changed his mind several times, always producing valid signals which all did not follow through
  • Market grinded up in the second half of day
  • We have no follow through on that very bearish candle from the day before. This, in my view, is for now more bullish than bearish

2022-01-09

  • Gap up, trying to break out of that bigger balance area
  • Nice fade exactly to rth h
  • Nice move in breakout direction
  • Failing hard at midday
  • Gamechange trade near vwap possible
  • Closing low
  • Has the breaokut failed? I think we have to wait and see. It did not sell off hard enough to be clear

2022-12-15

Pre market narrative

Post market summary

  • The question is if what we saw the last two days with big news influence is an excess on the top or not
  • We open with gap down 
  • We get minimal fade
  • We go down all day and create a liquidation b-profile
  • We close below the big balance area low
  • It is a liquidation profile with 77 points of range. Not a trending day. 
  • As such it is not a total capitulation of buyers. But unquestionable we are down on the daily down after excess on the top
  • Excess marks the end of one auction and the beginning of another
  • The next days will bring if we get  a) breakout fail and come back in balance area b) continuation to the downside or c) new balance

2022-12-14

  • Yesterday we had the fill of that 3% gap
  • Today we have the fed at 2pm
  • Nothing to do in that situation
  • Hopefully we have more clarity tomorrow

 

2022-12-13

Pre market narrative

Post Market summary

  • We had a ultra huge gap of nearly 3% after inflation data
  • We closed that gap to 100%
  • Many trader who trade for decades told that they cannot remember such a huge gap close on the first day in the ES

2022-12-12

Pre market narrative

  • This market can do whatever it wants especially with the coming news
  • If it goes up we normally  would expect some kind of excess on the downside before that
  • Tomorrow CPI, wednesday FED
  • Often we have balance or non-trend behaviour on these days before big news

 

Post market summary

  • Again sellers get no traction
  • We get covering 
  • We close above the 4 day balance with a price probe in K,L,M

Always remember, especially when it seems to be a clear context:

The worst thing a trader can have is only one idea

Trade what is, not what should be

2022-12-09

Pre market narrative

  • We broke the uptrend clearly and found some balance the last two days
  • Let´s see if we try to go out on the downside of that large balance area
  • Rallys are potentially sellable in that context
  • We had several good looking situations for this but no real selling came in until at the end of the session
  • Hard to trade

 

2022-12-06

Pre market narrative

  • Trendline above, Trendline below
  • I have no clear context at the moment
  • We open in y balance > trade later

Post market summary

  • Market fell nearly the whole day
  • Unfortunately no temporary covering rallies to short
  • Volume and range was ok but not impressive
  • We have only one set of single prints
  • The up move from years low is under pressure but not over
  • We have to see if we get a breakout to the downside from that larger balance area