2023-03-28

Post market

  • The last two days both had 1) very small range and 2) two sided trade
  • I see it as a form of balance: The market is waiting for new information before it starts its next directional move
  • Have a look at the red triangle
  • In addition we are at yearly poc und yearly vwap

Thoughts for 2023 week 13

  • The market is in a 5 month balance
  • Most gaps get filled in time
  • Keep this in mind when we we have gap openings

 

2023-03-27

Pre market

Post market

What happened

  • We opened with gap up
  • Had a little fade and then tried to go higher but failed
  • I saw this and shorted it. In these situations i often want to see the short develop fast. I close these trades too early, because the fact that we are holding the gap at this moment makes me feel uncomfortable in the short.
  • Be more confident in this situation. Give the trade more time to develop even if it is against the gap. There is enough long inventory which has to liquidate
  • We made a liquidation b but were not able to enter y rth
  • On the other hand there were no buyers to create a real change to the upside
  • We ended the day with value clean higher

Mental part

  • I ended with a small loss which i accepted totally. There was no attempt to fight this daily loss. This makes me happy because the acceptance of daily losses is my actual main point on which i work
  • The techniques of trading auction market theory are not that complicated. It is the mental part ot the game which makes the real difference

2023-03-26

Pre market

Post market

Pre

  • Expansion of range on fed day
  • Yesterday looked strong but failed hard
  • Market has potential to roll over to the short side

Post

  • Several times it looked like a change in control but did not follow through on either side
  • Sellers attempted to go lower but finally were not able
  • Consequently seller got ripped apart in E-period
  • Although it seemed to be clear in favour of buyers/covering now we saw a pullback in F almost to vwap
  • I was a little bit too early in this long but it worked
  • You can say the early entry was a soft form of revenge trading. But you can also say when you expect more covering it is fine to enter offensive

The week ahead

  • The fact that it did not roll over is positive
  • But it is negative that we still have to clear this downtrendline
  • The QQQs are stronger. Be careful trading ES and watching NQ
  • The market is stll very indecisive. Do not take too much position risk. When in doubt, take the smaller target. Cash in

2023-03-15

Description

  • Open with large gap down
  • The fade looked strong but was finally was not able to come in yesterdays range
  • It tried to go down but failed
  • Covering attempt also failed
  • Tried to go down again and failed
  • Finally covering was able to go higher

Thoughts

  • This market attempts to do and fails
  • As  i usually go for larger intraday moves this market is hard to trade for me
  • Perhaps i should go for smaller moves

The Q´s look very strong. Failed on the downnside. Made an outside day up yesterday…

2023-03-14

Pre market

  • We have seen two downward moves on tf 2
  • Yesterday we had a covering p
  • Inventory is very short. There is room for more covering

Post market

  • We come in high and go beyond rth h. Perfect scenario for covering
  • Market only grinds higher very slow. Are there sellers absorbing? Anyhow we reach my target at the old low (yellow line)
  • I think that it could roll over to the short side. I am (as often) a little bit too early in that trade but finally it works
  • I think this short has great potential as several timeframes come together
  • In l-period it clearly fails to follow through. I close my short and change to long as the inventory is very short at this moment
  • I really saw the potential and had the hope of going lower. But I stayed very objective here and saw what is. Good job

Other thoughts

  • The starting point (factor price) was good for a short: The market needs to rally before it can break
  • But we are on day 2 of the consolidation. The market needs time to balance. 
  • Give more weight on factor time

2022-02-09

Pre market

Post market

  • We come in with a non true gap higher
  • Given the conext of a consolidation in an up market and the excess on the bottom i am interested on the long side
  • I try two times with potential failing  of a down move which could have been the correction of overnight inventory
  • But market is not able to go higher and falls the whole day
  • We end with a trend day / liquidation day down

Is this the end of the up direction? Lets see what we have:

  • 88 points of range is serious selling but not catastrophic
  • Same is true for the volume with 1.5 mio
  • When i look at the starting point and the way they sold it i think there was a big part of old money and not so much new money in this selling
  • We have to wait and see. If we see value clean lower tomorrow and in a few days acceptance below the trend from low of year i will of course change my opinion
  • On the bigger picture the weekly in one time framing up
  • I think it´s important if we finally see a breakout of that december high or if we fail to do that
  • For now everything is ok for the bulls
  • Every dollar with a long only benchmark that is not invested is a short dollar which eventually has to cover

2023-02-08

Pre market

  • Yesterday we had Powell speaking
  • As nearly always: Wild volatility. Keep far away from that!!! This  can kill accounts!!!
  • We ended up with an excess on the downside of the actual consolidation
  • Can we move higher after this in the next days?

 

Post market

  • For me the first hour looked like a typical whipsaw shake out opening phase which could result in a trend day up
  • Did not happen. We ended with a small liquidation-b which is also an inside day
  • This balance can set the base for a breakout in either direction tomorrow

2023-01-31

Pre market

Post market

  • Market tried to go lower in eth but failed clearly. Without having statistics i believe that we often are bullish after this at least for the beginning of the rth session
  • We start with a very noisy tick. Ultra important to recognize this and increase your distance to the market
  • As often, after having such a choppy opening phase, we at one time get a breakout and see some follow through

2023-01-30

Pre market

Post market

  • We open with gap down in a long environment
  • I am looking for longs if down moves fail
  • Market fell slow but did not get the turn to the upside
  • These are difficult days for me
  • Small loss for the day is absolutely ok for me