Thoughts before the open
- We spike up in eth with cpi numbers
- But we come back and open only with a small gap
- This is a first indication that eventually we get a look above 7 day balance area and fail
- But we never know. Small gaps often are buyable.
- Like always: Trading is ambigous
What happened
- We have a chaotic first hour
- We get the first directional move in C to the downside. This strenghtens the look above and fail thesis
- Then we get an unexpected nearly 100% percent pullback. In my interpretation this was a gamechanger. If the thesis is correct this should not retrace that much
- Around 2pm we again have some chaos with the fed minutes and we end up with a second directional move to the downside
- In the end ee have a look above and fail on D1. But it retraced nearly 100% intraday and ended with only 47 points of range.
- This is nothing. I interpret the market on D1 as in Balance. Normally we would target the weak low which is the low of that 7 day balance area.
- But the environment is not normal. It is a low volatility environment. Do not target anything from the bigger timeframes. Trade small.
- Perhaps we see more volatility with the upcomin earnings session