2022-02-09

Pre market

We come in with a non true gap higher
Given the conext of a consolidation in an up market and the excess on the bottom i am interested on the long side
I try two times with potential failing of a down move which could have been the correction of overnight inventory
But market is not able to go higher and falls the whole day
We end with a trend day / liquidation day down

Is this the end of the up direction? Lets see what we have:

88 points of range is serious selling but not catastrophic
Same is true for the volume with 1.5 mio
When i look at the starting point and the way they sold it i think there was a big part of old money and not so much new money in this selling
We have to wait and see. If we see value clean lower tomorrow and in a few days acceptance below the trend from low of year i will of course change my opinion

On the bigger picture the weekly in one time framing up
I think it´s important if we finally see a breakout of that december high or if we fail to do that
For now everything is ok for the bulls
Every dollar with a long only benchmark that is not invested is a short dollar which eventually has to cover

Lets see what we get on top of yesterday trending day
Remember that the market on the larger timeframes is trying to break the big 2022 down trend
Gap up and small fade to y rth h and poc. Poc was on top, indicating that the auction is not finished
Not able to go deeper in y range
As an (sometimes too) pro-active trader i always buy the first failing down -move in these auctions
Getting my max max targets easy with my „scale.-out-triangle“
I tagged it as a trendday. But it is more a covering day or lets say something in between

We have third friday of the month = bigger options expiry
This can sometimes lead to pinning in single stocks which can make the index choppy
Open and test down
Fail and go trendday up
Open-test-drive trending day

We continue to fall in an unimpressive way
We are not able to go below y rth l
Powell mentions something about eventually slowing the pace of rate hikes
The market explodes to the upside with good volume
We clearly take out the high of the bigger balance area. Remains to be seen if we find acceptance above
It is always the same. The market tests into new territory. We have to see if it finds acceptance or rejection
Of course, there was much short covering involved. But i think by far that was not only short covering.
Of course, this was triggered by Powell. But to what degree did he really back that move? Was there really so much new information? Or was the market anyway ready to go higher?

We have a large downtrend which is intact
We are close to the trendline and have to see if we are able to break the downtrend
Are the lows of the year in?
Makes zero sense to think about this. Do not listen to the media. Let MGI guide you.

We opened below wednesday low
The first minutes looked like we reject lower prices
But we quickly ran out of steem and fell the rest of the day
You can formally call it a trend day. But for a gamechanging trendday down this is not enough range and not enough volume
We have two days left for this month. I try to stay neutral

A thought that came to my mind tonight:

We ended the day before with a spike
A spike is a price probe late in the session
In the next session it is interesting to see, where we get acceptance relative to the spike
We opened above the spike and never tested inside it.
Consequently covering started which developed into a trending day
Very interesting so see how strong the market ist despite these bad earnings in tech stocks

There was much covering in this up-move
We will see if longer term buyers will also come in
The last rallys were all sold off
Most important earnings week
Be objective and open to all possible outcomes: 1) look above and go 2) look above and fail 3) door no 3 is balance,
Do not go into overnight swing positions. These will lead to bias and kill your daytrading objectivity
Start each day flat and open minded and enjoy low risk daytrading