2022-11-08

  • Small gap up
  • A period checks back in upper distribution from yesterday and fails
  • We start one time framing higher
  • It looks very stable. Contextually we should have more covering potential
  • I hit a 20P Target.
  • I decide to let a runner run
  • For me a runner is a trade that i let free of narrow trade management because i think contextually we have room for more (narrative completion, destination trade)
  • On Friday i had a similar trade on the short side

Intention of runners

  • The intention is to trade the structure of the day as a whole with a small remaining position
  • I do this with minimal path dependancy. I do not want to get shaken out by normal contra rotations
  • If it works you make big profit and you feel good, because you saw the structure of the market as a whole instead of having to scalp around small in fight with the algos
  • In volatile times i sometimes need 2-3 trials before i am in a running trade. In that case i feel that i need to profit accordingly. If this goes too far and you trade your p&l instead of the market this is of course a big problem.  

Problem with runners

  • Volatility of p&L increases which has much effects:  1) Calmness of mind decreases 2) Ability to increase size decreases
  • To balance these large disadvantages runners should have a large positive financial outcome. This is not the case 

Believes to influence my behaviour with runners

  1. The market is full of intraday speculators       (too long, too short, need to liquidate/cover)
  2. Money comes from size and size comes from stability

2022-11-04

  • This market is in maximum indecision
  • We gap up and fail clearly
  • Unexpected we fail to go down and rise sharply
  • Again unexpected we sell off hard
  • Only to again unexpected get no follow through and cover 

How to handle next week

  • Many times it is a question of timeframe
  • If the environment is readable it is good to catch the larger intraday moves
  • If like now the market is in big indecision it should be better to trade a shorter timeframe
  • At the moment short term traders and algos get shaken around. Ohhh, it´s going down, let´s short it, f* no follow through we have to cover, ….
  • I expect this behaviour to continue the following week. We have midterm elections on tuesday and cpi on thursday
  • Look at the daily chart. You can see the indecision in the overlapping value areas
  • On the weekly chart on the left we see that sellers had the chance to get an outside week down but they were not able to get it
  • Until we get more clearity try to trade a little bit smaller timeframe !!!