2022-11-10
Open with large gap up after cooled inflation numberStarts with a little inventory correctionRemaining day up in a controlled wayThese are the days where the market does what it should
Open with large gap up after cooled inflation numberStarts with a little inventory correctionRemaining day up in a controlled wayThese are the days where the market does what it should
Small gap up A period checks back in upper distribution from yesterday and fails We start one time framing higher It looks very stable. Contextually we should have more covering potential I hit a 20P Target. I decide to let a runner run For me a runner is a trade that i let free of narrow trade management because i think contextually we have room for more (narrative completion, destination trade) On Friday i had a similar trade on the short side Intention of runners The intention is to trade the structure of the day as a whole with a small remaining position I do this with minimal path dependancy. I do not want to get shaken out by normal contra rotations If it works you make big profit and you feel good, because you saw the structure of the market as a whole instead of having to scalp around small in fight with the algos In volatile times i sometimes need 2-3 trials before i am in a running trade. In that case i feel that i need to profit accordingly. If this goes too far and you trade your p&l instead of the market this is of course a big problem. Problem with runners Volatility of p&L increases which has much effects: 1) Calmness of mind decreases 2) Ability to increase size decreases To balance these large disadvantages runners should have a large positive financial outcome. This is not the case Believes to influence my behaviour with runners The market is full of intraday speculators (too long, too short, need to liquidate/cover) Money comes from size and size comes from stability
This market is in maximum indecision We gap up and fail clearly Unexpected we fail to go down and rise sharply Again unexpected we sell off hard Only to again unexpected get no follow through and cover How to handle next week Many times it is a question of timeframe If the environment is readable it is good to catch the larger intraday moves If like now the market is in big indecision it should be better to trade a shorter timeframe At the moment short term traders and algos get shaken around. Ohhh, it´s going down, let´s short it, f* no follow through we have to cover, .... I expect this behaviour to continue the following week. We have midterm elections on tuesday and cpi on thursday Look at the daily chart. You can see the indecision in the overlapping value areas On the weekly chart on the left we see that sellers had the chance to get an outside week down but they were not able to get it Until we get more clearity try to trade a little bit smaller timeframe !!!
We had a trending day upFollowed by an inside dayToday we open with gap up on a new swing highBalance rules apply: 1) Look above and go 2) Look above and fail 3) BalanceWe fail hard and finish with a liquidation-b-profile
Gap up out of 5 day balanceStarts strongThen fails and breaks back into balanceTurns again and goes up the rest of the sessionTwo surprising changes, not easy to trade
Trading day Open with huge gap up at top of overnight session with 100% long overnight inventory This is an invitation to go for the fade which worked out fine For me unepected they filled the gap completely Middle picture and how to act We produced a red candle but nevertheless this was a positive day for the bulls as we accepted higher prices compared to the days before We now have a choppy 3-week-balance area which is not my favorite We also have Q3 earnings at the moment I think at the moment the map is unclear For daytrading: Be extremely objective. Do not develop biases. When in doubt get out. Cash in instead of making larger destination trades Be a collector - not a hunterGo for base hits - not homeruns
Interesting overnight sessions that opened at rth low and went up the whole session It is not a real gap but a big one with a good amount of shock and awe. Where did much selling take place yesterday? At the poc. Gap up and go and hold Good example that you should not expect too much more on a large gap Get a cheap price and scale out humble is the m.o.
Open with gap up in potential covering environment Market tried to go higher but failed Good example that you have to be as objective as possible (your mind has to be open to all different outcomes)Fell the whole day and closed low with low pocRetraced between 50% and 61,8% from that brutal covering move the day beforeVery unclear what the next direction will be
Gap up in covering environmentGap and goPullback to vwapSecond leg with much less dynamic