2022-10-12
We had ppi and fed minutesBut we produced an inside dayInside day is balance. After balance comes imbalance
2022-10-11
Continuation of downtrend versus covering is the actual question We looked below rth low but did not accomplish very much Consequently coverings start and make a nice move to the composite poc 3650 There were (as always) arguments for a runner. See what happened at 2:45 pm The market is very news-driven at the moment Trade small, cash in, stay calm Slow is smooth and smooth is fast
2022-10-10
Of course we are in a downtrend and it all looks as if we get new lowsBut at the same time inventory is very short so that at any time the market can make a smaller or bigger coveringPlus: We have important inflation data coming out soonPlus: Earnings season starts on friday with bank numbers Coverings or news-moves can come any timeScale out !!
2022-10-07
Open with gap down after NFPGap and goNo larger pullback (which you never know until the closing bell rings)Trading is about CHANGE. Today we changed from covering-mode back to downtrend-mode
2022-10-06
Before the open:We are in a covering-environmentWe had a gap up and hold higher prices for 2 days nowYesterday was an outside day that closed strongIt looks like we stay in status quo (covering mode) (=bullish) as long as we do not close the gap below and find acceptance thereBut: Big numbers are comingTomorrow we get non-farm-payrollsThis increases the odds that we do not get much movement today...that we stay in balance, get some chop, ...Try to trade from a little more defensive, responsive standpoint How did the day developedWe started very strong and it seemed we could test rth hBut we failed hardEven so we failed hard we did not get much on the downsideWe ended with an inside dayLearning:It is extremely helpful to have in mind that we eventually do not get much today because of coming numbers
2022-10-05
Open clearly lower (surprising in that environment) but in rangeMy thoughts how the day could eventually develop were correct: Shaking out on the downside and moving up again (staying in covering mode)My visualizations appeared, i took my longs. But the market shaked out one time too often and went back up without meSometimes you are not sufficient in sync with the market or just unluckyThis is an inevitable part of the game
2022-10-04
Gap up in covering environmentGap and goPullback to vwapSecond leg with much less dynamic
2022-10-03
Market tested new lows in overnight session but got rejectedWonderful two-legged covering-day
2022-09-30
Covering in the morning Long Trend move down ending Q3 at lows
2022-09-29
Balance rules againThursdays strong covering makes people expect a little more, eg. gap fill.Longer term sellers feel comfortable to sell at higher pricesGap down switches that feeling to the opposite. They have to hurry now because their selling prices suddenly get worse instead of betterMarket reaches bottom of balance in B-PeriodNice pullback that holds at vwap 24. These were rare in the last weeks