2022-11-08
Small gap up A period checks back in upper distribution from yesterday and fails We start one time framing higher It looks very stable. Contextually we should have more covering potential I hit a 20P Target. I decide to let a runner run For me a runner is a trade that i let free of narrow trade management because i think contextually we have room for more (narrative completion, destination trade) On Friday i had a similar trade on the short side Intention of runners The intention is to trade the structure of the day as a whole with a small remaining position I do this with minimal path dependancy. I do not want to get shaken out by normal contra rotations If it works you make big profit and you feel good, because you saw the structure of the market as a whole instead of having to scalp around small in fight with the algos In volatile times i sometimes need 2-3 trials before i am in a running trade. In that case i feel that i need to profit accordingly. If this goes too far and you trade your p&l instead of the market this is of course a big problem. Problem with runners Volatility of p&L increases which has much effects: 1) Calmness of mind decreases 2) Ability to increase size decreases To balance these large disadvantages runners should have a large positive financial outcome. This is not the case Believes to influence my behaviour with runners The market is full of intraday speculators (too long, too short, need to liquidate/cover) Money comes from size and size comes from stability
2022-11-07
Slow, choppy trading in most partsBroke out at 2pm for some coveringVery important to not kill yourself in slow choppy markets, especially in sandwich time
2022-11-04
This market is in maximum indecision We gap up and fail clearly Unexpected we fail to go down and rise sharply Again unexpected we sell off hard Only to again unexpected get no follow through and cover How to handle next week Many times it is a question of timeframe If the environment is readable it is good to catch the larger intraday moves If like now the market is in big indecision it should be better to trade a shorter timeframe At the moment short term traders and algos get shaken around. Ohhh, it´s going down, let´s short it, f* no follow through we have to cover, .... I expect this behaviour to continue the following week. We have midterm elections on tuesday and cpi on thursday Look at the daily chart. You can see the indecision in the overlapping value areas On the weekly chart on the left we see that sellers had the chance to get an outside week down but they were not able to get it Until we get more clearity try to trade a little bit smaller timeframe !!!
2022-11-03
The market is trying to roll overWe open with gap down after a large down spike so the market is already very short positionedOn the other hand if we really roll over we could test the lows of the year and get further down momentum todayNear zero fade. Starts like a gap and goWe fail to go lower with the ism newsThe rest of the day we are in an upside movement but the buyers do not accomplish anything. They are not able to close the gapBuyers had all opportunity to reject these lower prices hardly but they did notAlso sellers did not accomplish further follow throughWe end with value clean lower which of course is bearishAt the moment the d1 up-trend is broken and we rolled over in a new down-swing.The next days will show. Next week we have the mid term election. Tomorrow is nfp. You gotta love it :-)
2022-11-02
FOMC dayI took the day off. Not interesting for me
2022-11-01
We had a trending day upFollowed by an inside dayToday we open with gap up on a new swing highBalance rules apply: 1) Look above and go 2) Look above and fail 3) BalanceWe fail hard and finish with a liquidation-b-profile
2022-10-31
We are on the day after a big trending day We have the FED on wednesday Not unexpected that we get a neutral day or something similar It is also an inside day which is a good base for the next move Can we get a larger move tomorrow, one day before the FED? Of course, we can, but the odds are much lower Be defensive with trading breakouts from inside day tomorrow
2022-10-28
We ended the day before with a spike A spike is a price probe late in the session In the next session it is interesting to see, where we get acceptance relative to the spike We opened above the spike and never tested inside it. Consequently covering started which developed into a trending day Very interesting so see how strong the market ist despite these bad earnings in tech stocks