2023-01-17

On the weekly fesx we see, that european stock market is on its way to reach the alltime high The SPY weekly is still fighting with its downtrend that started with the beginning of 2022 ES  (daily candles) succesfully broke out of that balance area We are one time framing higher for 4 days now and were able to close above the 61.8. But the dynamic is not very high. Overlapping value. Higher highs only by little What can happen next? Dynamic can increase with more short covering We can balance for a while We can totally roll over and get a new down swing We started strong with a breakout to new highs on high volume But then buyers ran out of bullets and we liquidated for the rest of the session resulting in a liquidation-b-profile We had a nice selling tail on the top but stronger selling did not develop. We even did not reach Fridays mid and by far not fridays low. So we are still otf up. It seems that we just have to balance a bit. 

2022-01-10

The question was if the breakout failed or notThe market changed his mind several times, always producing valid signals which all did not follow throughMarket grinded up in the second half of dayWe have no follow through on that very bearish candle from the day before. This, in my view, is for now more bullish than bearish

2022-01-09

Gap up, trying to break out of that bigger balance areaNice fade exactly to rth hNice move in breakout directionFailing hard at middayGamechange trade near vwap possibleClosing lowHas the breaokut failed? I think we have to wait and see. It did not sell off hard enough to be clear

2022-12-15

Pre market narrative Post market summary The question is if what we saw the last two days with big news influence is an excess on the top or notWe open with gap down We get minimal fadeWe go down all day and create a liquidation b-profileWe close below the big balance area lowIt is a liquidation profile with 77 points of range. Not a trending day. As such it is not a total capitulation of buyers. But unquestionable we are down on the daily down after excess on the topExcess marks the end of one auction and the beginning of anotherThe next days will bring if we get  a) breakout fail and come back in balance area b) continuation to the downside or c) new balance

2022-12-14

Yesterday we had the fill of that 3% gapToday we have the fed at 2pmNothing to do in that situationHopefully we have more clarity tomorrow 

2022-12-13

Pre market narrative Post Market summary We had a ultra huge gap of nearly 3% after inflation dataWe closed that gap to 100%Many trader who trade for decades told that they cannot remember such a huge gap close on the first day in the ES

2022-12-12

Pre market narrative This market can do whatever it wants especially with the coming news If it goes up we normally  would expect some kind of excess on the downside before that Tomorrow CPI, wednesday FED Often we have balance or non-trend behaviour on these days before big news Post market summary Again sellers get no traction We get covering  We close above the 4 day balance with a price probe in K,L,M Always remember, especially when it seems to be a clear context: The worst thing a trader can have is only one idea Trade what is, not what should be

2022-12-09

Pre market narrative We broke the uptrend clearly and found some balance the last two daysLet´s see if we try to go out on the downside of that large balance area Rallys are potentially sellable in that contextWe had several good looking situations for this but no real selling came in until at the end of the sessionHard to trade 

2022-12-06

Pre market narrative Trendline above, Trendline belowI have no clear context at the momentWe open in y balance > trade laterPost market summary Market fell nearly the whole dayUnfortunately no temporary covering rallies to shortVolume and range was ok but not impressiveWe have only one set of single printsThe up move from years low is under pressure but not overWe have to see if we get a breakout to the downside from that larger balance area