Monthly 2023-01

Thoughts for 2023 week 5

Lets try to be as objective as possible
On the big picture we broke the downtrend which dominated 2022
We try to establish an uptrend and were able to create a nice higher low
On a day to day basis it looks a little more fragile but also ok
We have the fed on wednesday
We have the highlights of the q4 numbers with aapl, amzn, and googl on thursday after market close
Expect a highly volatile week
Get the size of longer term positions right and leave your fingers away from these positions. Do not get shaken in and out from the volatility
Trade intraday

Stay objective. Do not listen to the media.

We start strong without a fade
One second after it looks like the sellers give up they come in strong
They sell it off hard, clearly below vwap and it looks like s stronger selling/liquidation
But we get no continuation: Instead buyers take over again
Into the close we see a good amount of selling
Finally we end up with value clean higher

Small fade, not able to close the gap
Pressure to downside
I am not interested in shorts. I wait if it fails
Need a few attempts but finally get the meat of the up-move
I see it as very bullish, that the market was able to absorp this negative event that way

This is typical for the ambiguity of trading. On one timeframe the market looks ultra bullish and is a strong buy. But on the smaller timeframe the market has already moved a good amount in a short period of time on poor structure (single prints)
As a pro active person i have more fear of missing out as of a loosing trade. In the past i often was too agressive in these situations and bought too high in relation to tf1.

You have to combine two time frames. I call the timeframe that i trade tf0. You can also call it daytype. In the hierarchy of timeframes i am a „daytrader“. Below me are the „scalpers“. Above me are the „short term traders“. I call the timeframe above me tf1.
The most important thing is what is happening live at the moment
But this you have to embed in what the timeframes above are doing

On tf1 we have a strong emotional move which happened in the last two days. Of course, anything can happen, but it would be normal if this at one time starts to balance out and create a covering-p-profile, This is exactly what i have to keep in mind to protect me from buying too agressive in the region of yesterdays high, even if the trade fits perfect in the actual day type tf0.
This doesn´t mean that i am not allowed to buy there. But i have to carry this point forward and take it into account when deciding in the live-moment.
It is easy to make the mistake of skipping a timeframe. If i say the market is trying to breakout from the balance area of the last 10 days i miss that it already moved strong for two days

Lets see what we get on top of yesterday trending day
Remember that the market on the larger timeframes is trying to break the big 2022 down trend
Gap up and small fade to y rth h and poc. Poc was on top, indicating that the auction is not finished
Not able to go deeper in y range
As an (sometimes too) pro-active trader i always buy the first failing down -move in these auctions
Getting my max max targets easy with my „scale.-out-triangle“
I tagged it as a trendday. But it is more a covering day or lets say something in between

We have third friday of the month = bigger options expiry
This can sometimes lead to pinning in single stocks which can make the index choppy
Open and test down
Fail and go trendday up
Open-test-drive trending day

They start with a fade that gets no traction and is not able to fill the gap
The next auction is down and i am short in it
Given the potential to roll over in higher timeframes this is a nice trade
We get no bigger follow through and consequently get a covering rally which also gets no bigger traction
We end with a balanced day. Value clean lower. This confirms the short direction on this timeframe.