Post market The last two days both had 1) very small range and 2) two sided tradeI see it as a form of balance: The market is waiting for new information before it starts its next directional moveHave a look at the red triangleIn addition we are at yearly poc und yearly vwap
The market is in a 5 month balance Most gaps get filled in time Keep this in mind when we we have gap openings
Pre market Post market What happened We opened with gap up Had a little fade and then tried to go higher but failed I saw this and shorted it. In these situations i often want to see the short develop fast. I close these trades too early, because the fact that we are holding the gap at this moment makes me feel uncomfortable in the short. Be more confident in this situation. Give the trade more time to develop even if it is against the gap. There is enough long inventory which has to liquidate We made a liquidation b but were not able to enter y rth On the other hand there were no buyers to create a real change to the upside We ended the day with value clean higher Mental part I ended with a small loss which i accepted totally. There was no attempt to fight this daily loss. This makes me happy because the acceptance of daily losses is my actual main point on which i work The techniques of trading auction market theory are not that complicated. It is the mental part ot the game which makes the real difference
Pre market Post market Pre Expansion of range on fed day Yesterday looked strong but failed hard Market has potential to roll over to the short side Post Several times it looked like a change in control but did not follow through on either side Sellers attempted to go lower but finally were not able Consequently seller got ripped apart in E-period Although it seemed to be clear in favour of buyers/covering now we saw a pullback in F almost to vwap I was a little bit too early in this long but it worked You can say the early entry was a soft form of revenge trading. But you can also say when you expect more covering it is fine to enter offensive The week ahead The fact that it did not roll over is positive But it is negative that we still have to clear this downtrendline The QQQs are stronger. Be careful trading ES and watching NQ The market is stll very indecisive. Do not take too much position risk. When in doubt, take the smaller target. Cash in
DescriptionOpen with large gap downThe fade looked strong but was finally was not able to come in yesterdays rangeIt tried to go down but failedCovering attempt also failedTried to go down again and failedFinally covering was able to go higherThoughtsThis market attempts to do and failsAs i usually go for larger intraday moves this market is hard to trade for mePerhaps i should go for smaller movesThe Q´s look very strong. Failed on the downnside. Made an outside day up yesterday...
Pre marketWe have seen two downward moves on tf 2Yesterday we had a covering pInventory is very short. There is room for more coveringPost marketWe come in high and go beyond rth h. Perfect scenario for coveringMarket only grinds higher very slow. Are there sellers absorbing? Anyhow we reach my target at the old low (yellow line)I think that it could roll over to the short side. I am (as often) a little bit too early in that trade but finally it worksI think this short has great potential as several timeframes come togetherIn l-period it clearly fails to follow through. I close my short and change to long as the inventory is very short at this momentI really saw the potential and had the hope of going lower. But I stayed very objective here and saw what is. Good jobOther thoughtsThe starting point (factor price) was good for a short: The market needs to rally before it can breakBut we are on day 2 of the consolidation. The market needs time to balance. Give more weight on factor time
Pre market Post market We come in with a non true gap higherGiven the conext of a consolidation in an up market and the excess on the bottom i am interested on the long sideI try two times with potential failing of a down move which could have been the correction of overnight inventoryBut market is not able to go higher and falls the whole dayWe end with a trend day / liquidation day downIs this the end of the up direction? Lets see what we have:88 points of range is serious selling but not catastrophicSame is true for the volume with 1.5 mioWhen i look at the starting point and the way they sold it i think there was a big part of old money and not so much new money in this sellingWe have to wait and see. If we see value clean lower tomorrow and in a few days acceptance below the trend from low of year i will of course change my opinion On the bigger picture the weekly in one time framing upI think it´s important if we finally see a breakout of that december high or if we fail to do thatFor now everything is ok for the bullsEvery dollar with a long only benchmark that is not invested is a short dollar which eventually has to cover
Pre market Yesterday we had Powell speakingAs nearly always: Wild volatility. Keep far away from that!!! This can kill accounts!!!We ended up with an excess on the downside of the actual consolidationCan we move higher after this in the next days? Post market For me the first hour looked like a typical whipsaw shake out opening phase which could result in a trend day upDid not happen. We ended with a small liquidation-b which is also an inside dayThis balance can set the base for a breakout in either direction tomorrow
Pre market Post market Market tried to go lower in eth but failed clearly. Without having statistics i believe that we often are bullish after this at least for the beginning of the rth sessionWe start with a very noisy tick. Ultra important to recognize this and increase your distance to the marketAs often, after having such a choppy opening phase, we at one time get a breakout and see some follow through
Pre market Post market We open with gap down in a long environmentI am looking for longs if down moves failMarket fell slow but did not get the turn to the upsideThese are difficult days for meSmall loss for the day is absolutely ok for me