What happened
- Man, that was again a hard to read week
- We failed two times to break out to the upside of that 7 day balance area. That is normal. But unexpected is that after both failures we do not see continuation to the downside
- I think there was a fed speaker on friday morning that initiated the upside failure
- Sometimes it is more important what did not happen than what happened. What did not happen was the downside continuation
The week ahead
- The market almost always is mainly driven by speculators inventory
- At the moment it seems even more speculator and algo driven
- On the one day they buy it like crazy on the other day they do the opposite
- We sometimes see longer than expected intraday auctions. For example after fridays upside failure we went down in BCDEFGHI.
- Nevertheless we do not get continuation after a pullback but a counter auction that takes back more than vwap and more than mid
- Always keep in mind that algos do not have to trade in logical structure. They can act schizophrenic a long time
- How to navigate such a market. In the end like always: Only take the best entries at good prices after good inventory correction auctions with good change. Scale out humble
- The mechanics of market behaviour stay intact even if we have phases like this. One news, one untypical large execution can mix up the whole structure. There is of course randomness involved. Sometimes more, sometimes less
- This game is a marathon, not a sprint